In Aaron Judge's first plate appearance of the 2024 season, March 28th in Houston, he came up with a runner on 1st and one out.
In the 11,736 PA that occurred in the 2024 regular season with a runner on 1st and one out, there were 1,016 RBI, an average of .087 RBI per PA. Therefore we could say Judge was expected to drive in .087 runs.
He instead grounded into a double play, ending the inning.
In the 4th inning he led off. In 44,580 PA with the bases empty and no outs, there were 1,395 RBI (1,395 solo home runs) -- .031 RBI/PA. Judge walked.
In the 5th he batted with the bases loaded and no outs. Finally a chance to do some serious damage: there were only 693 PA with the bases loaded and no outs in 2024, and 540 RBI; an average of .779 RBI per PA. Judge struck out.
In the 7th he led off again (.031 expected RBI, or xRBI) and hit a double.
In the 8th he came up for a fifth time, this time with a runner on 1st and 2 outs. In 11,730 PA matching that situation, 1,002 runs were driven in -- .085 RBI/PA. Judge struck out.
All told Judge was expected to drive in about one run; 1.014 to be exact. He drove in zero, or 1.014 less than expected, or -1.014 RBI above average.
As we all know, Judge got over his slow start and went on to have a truly monster season, leading MLB in HR and RBI (among other things). Unsurprisingly, he also led all of baseball in RBI above average (RBIAA). According to the method outlined above, an average hitter in his 704 plate appearances would have had 87 RBI. Judge actually had 144 RBI, 57 more than expected, or 57 RBI above average (RBIAA).
So Judge was clearly the best at driving in runs, no surprise there. Now for the other end of the spectrum: setting the table.
When Judge kicked off the season by grounding into a double play, he not only failed to drive in a run, he ended the inning, thereby ruining any chance the following batter had to drive in runs. He inherited .087 xRBI; he left the next batter .000.
But it's worse than that. Batters had a total of 1,016 xRBI in the 11,736 PA they had with a runner on 1st and one out -- the same as the 1,016 RBI they actually had in those situations, and the same average: .087 RBI/PA.
But they left the next batter 1,814 xRBI, or an average of .155 RBI per PA.
If Judge had walked, he would have left the next batter .245 xRBI (1,044 RBI in 4,269 PA with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out).
If he'd doubled and the runner scored from 1st, he would've left the next batter .165 xRBI (841 RBI in 5,092 PA with a runner on 2nd and one out).
If he'd doubled and the runner had stopped at 3rd, he would've left the next batter .63 xRBI (976 RBI in 1,550 PA with runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out).
If he'd sacrificed the runner over to 2nd, he'd have left the next batter with .204 xRBI (1,379 RBI in 6,765 PA with a runner on 2nd and two out).
If he'd struck out, he would have left the next batter with .085 xRBI (1,002 RBI in 11,730 PA with a runner on 1st and two out), almost the same as the .087 he had.
Even if he'd hit a home run, he would have left the next batter with .029 xRBI (966 RBI in 32,821 PA with the bases empty and one out).
On average, batting events with a runner on 1st and one out left the next batter .155 xRBI. But Judge grounded into a double play, so he left the next batter with nothing.
Now, did my overly negative description of Judge's first game of 2024 fool you for a second time into thinking I was writing a "Judge is bad, actually" post? Shake yourself.
Judge didn't lead the majors in RBI opportunities added (RBIOA) -- he was third. That's right, Aaron Judge was both the best in baseball at driving in runs and the 3rd-best at setting the table.
The average batter in Judge's plate appearances would've left 84 xRBI to the next batter. Judge actually left 95.
Also with ~10 RBIOA were Jarren Duran, Yordan Alvarez, and Shohei Ohtani.
So if you wanted to pick a 1-4 with the best chance of breaking Hack Wilson's RBI record, theoretically you would pick the top 3 in RBIOA followed by the #1 in RBIAA:
If the average player had 79 RBI in 704 PA, we could expect Judge to have that many plus the RBIOA of the 1-3 hitters plus the RBIAA of Judge himself. That adds up to 170 RBI -- not even within 20 of Hack Wilson.
You may have noticed the parity in the leading RBIOA figures (12,12,11,11,10), which is probably due to the lack of any true table-setters in modern-day MLB. Not so in Hack Wilson's day.
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